您的当前位置:首页 > 私募资讯 > Bitfinex report: Market volatility will intensify, Bitcoin is expected to hit new highs after US election 正文
时间:2025-05-16 04:37:06 来源:网络整理 编辑:私募资讯
Bitfinex,thecryptocurrencyexchange,saidinareportreleasedonMondaythattheuncertaintyoftheUSelection,th
Bitfinex, the cryptocurrency exchange, said in a report released on Monday that the uncertainty of the US election, the "Trump Trading" narrative and seasonal factors in the fourth quarter created a "perfect storm" for Bitcoin, and the market is preparing for possible turbulence. Analysts believe that given the steady growth of Bitcoin call options and favorable seasonal factors in the fourth quarter, Bitcoin may break through a historic high of $73666 after the US election.
Bitfinex's report pointed out that due to geopolitical uncertainty, macroeconomic factors and the increasingly strong narrative of "Trump trade", the volatility of Bitcoin has increased. Last week, Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline of 6.2% before rebounding. This pullback highlights the growing impact of the upcoming U.S. presidential election on recent prices. The market generally believes that the Republican Party's victory over Bitcoin and other risky assets is beneficial. The correlation between Trump's chances of being elected and Bitcoin's upward trend has been strengthened.
On the decentralized prediction market platform Polymarket, users believe that the probability of Trump winning has risen to 66.3%, while He Jinli has dropped to 33.7%.
Bitfinex analysts continued to discuss the trading situation in the Bitcoin options market, pointing out that high implied volatility suggests that market volatility may increase in the next two weeks.
The expectation surrounding the election has stimulated a surge in option activity, with options expiring on key days before and after the election being traded at higher premiums, and implied volatility expected to peak at a daily volatility of 100 on November 8th (i.e. after election day) - indicating that the market is preparing for potential volatility
Analysts say that regardless of the outcome of the US election, Bitcoin's short-term volatility is expected to be higher than usual, while in the long run, Bitfinex continues to hold a bullish attitude towards Bitcoin.
The Bitfinex report also identified favorable seasonal factors for Bitcoin. Based on past history, Bitcoin typically performs strongly in the fourth quarter after a six-month decline, with a median quarterly return of 31.34%. Analysts suggest that this strong seasonal effect, combined with record breaking open interest in options and futures, reflects market participants' optimism towards the year-end phase and may drive Bitcoin to a historic high.
The report states, "Supporting this optimism is the steady growth of call options expiring on December 27th, particularly concentrated at the strike price of $80000. As open options contracts climb to new highs, the market is showing signs of laying out for a post election rally, which could push Bitcoin closer to or even beyond its historical high of $73666
omg是什么币2025-05-16 05:12
特币行情2025-05-16 05:04
像打游戏一样投资加密,找到属于你的专注领域2025-05-16 04:30
挖比特币是什么意思2025-05-16 04:27
门罗币交易所2025-05-16 03:52
涨停揭秘 | 克来机电首板涨停,封板资金9233.38万元2025-05-16 03:28
复旦张江:奥贝胆酸片药品上市申请获受理2025-05-16 03:25
中国太保首席投资官苏罡:未来将对互换便利相关政策进行深入研究2025-05-16 03:22
前三季度职工医保个账共济305亿元2025-05-16 03:07
个人所得税可以选择多家公司吗2025-05-16 03:05
像打游戏一样投资加密,找到属于你的专注领域2025-05-16 05:00
小赢卡贷逾期两个月,一般会有什么后果啊?2025-05-16 04:56
GT Radar Weekly Report 10/30: BTC challenges historical high, US election will trigger violent fluctuations2025-05-16 04:33
eth最多会产出多少2025-05-16 04:12
30万劳务发票要交多少税2025-05-16 03:57
比特币钱包木马2025-05-16 03:36
HashKey Exchange CEO Livio: The institutional era of Web3 in Hong Kong is approaching boiling point2025-05-16 03:32
莱特比钱包备份-莱特币备份打开2025-05-16 03:08
挖比特币是什么意思2025-05-16 02:48
渣打银行分析师称比特币二季度或达12万美元2025-05-16 02:41